Nintendo NX Release Date

crunchyg

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March 24, 2015

The official release date of Nintendo NX is currently unknown. Nintendo announced the system on March 17, 2015 and promised that it would be "further revealed" in 2016. This probably means that Nintendo will have an official unveiling presentation either at E3 in the summer of 2016 or at its own event after E3, probably in July or August 2016.

Can we extrapolate from this further? Yes. All Nintendo home consoles in the past 15 years have launched around Thanksgiving in the United States. That almost certainly means that Nintendo NX will launch in November of either 2016 or 2017. Considering that the NX was announced in March 2015 and is likely already under heavy development, a November 2016 launch date is not implausible.

Let's consider the launch date projection in terms of Nintendo's software sales now. Software is Nintendo's bread and butter; its makes up the majority of Nintendo's revenue every financial quarter. Software can only sell on consoles that have a large install base (i.e. total number of consoles in people's homes), which Wii U still hasn't established two and a half years after its launch. Nintendo's hopes that Smash Bros would significantly elevate Wii U's install base did not materialize. The game only sold 630,000 copies in Japan, and to this day the Wii U does not have a single million seller in Japan (Mario Kart came close at 950,000 copies).

That means Nintendo stands to lose money on Wii U, and most software titles will not recoup their development costs. The last big title that had the opportunity to lift Wii U's sales was Legend of Zelda, which just got pushed back to 2016.

So with two nearly simultaneous announcements of a new home console and Wii U's most anticipated game delay until next year, it's becoming increasingly likely that Nintendo will cut Wii U's life cycle short in favor of introducing a new system as soon as possible. In fact, it's not unlikely that the new Zelda game will be released on the NX instead of Wii U, or perhaps enjoy a simultaneous release on both platforms, similar to how Twilight Princess was launched on both GameCube and Wii.

Given the above, we believe it's probable that Nintendo NX will launch in North America in November 2016, with Legend of Zelda as a launch title.

This thread will be updated as Nintendo releases more information.

Edits:

October 16, 2015 Wall Street Journal: "We are increasingly of the idea that Nintendo might launch the NX in 2016."

October 16, 2016 Venture Beat, Why Nintendo NX having a 2016 release date makes sense
 
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dustinb12

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i hope its not too soon. I'm still enjoying my wii u, and i hope all my downloads and such carry over. i think the wii u is perfect at this point, at least for my tastes
 

AudaciouslyAwkward

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This sounds like just the right of timing for me since it's usually about 5-6 years between consoles. Nintendo gives a sneak peak of their new system at next year's E3 and then releases it for the holidays in 2017. That would be a 5 year run and given the fact that sales have not been as high as hoped for, I can completely understand Nintendo's thinking on this one. Either way we've still got a lot of great games before the WiiU ends it's run and I can't wait to see what Nintendo has up their sleeve for the next one.
 

Christina

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I am still worried cause they need more people making games for their consoles before they really release another console. Also need to really some some games that will accompy the release. I will stay about 2017 or 18 will be release. Most likely my guess is November of 17.
 

Demon_skeith

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I really have no idea what Nintendo's true intentions with this console is, if it is a Wii U replacement aka a do over or to move on and forget the screw ups of the Wii U.

But when its released I hope its done at a time that it can properly be supported with a good line up of games or the mistakes of the Wii U will be repeated all over again.
 

crunchyg

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The Wall Street Journal today cited industry analysts who are agreeing with our 2016 release date prediction.

“We are increasingly of the idea that Nintendo might launch the NX in 2016 because of the softness of 3DS and Wii U,” said David Gibson, an analyst at Macquarie Capital Securities.

Remember, folks, we called this back in March and caught tons of flack for it on other sites. I am sticking with November 2016 as the only possible release date for the NX.
 

Hyrule Chicken

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That's pretty interesting, and feels like it's really soon after the launch of the Wii U, but let's take a look at the timeline of console releases by Nintendo by system (in North America):
  • NES - Released October 18, 1985
  • Super NES - Released August 23, 1991 (~6 years after the NES)
  • Nintendo 64 - Released September 26, 1996 (~5 years after the Super NES)
  • GameCube - Released November 18, 2001 (~5 years after the N64)
  • Wii - Released November 19, 2006 (5 years after the GameCube)
  • Wii U - Released November 18, 2012 (6 years after the Wii)
  • NX - Potentially November 2016 (making it only 4 years after the Wii U)

It will be the shortest amount of time in-between Nintendo consoles, but not by that much. It feels pretty soon though, but historically a console's life is about 5 years, so they're going with a year earlier than "normal", which is no surprise considering the sales of the Wii U. In contrast, we got 6 years of the Wii before the Wii U came out, which speaks to its popularity.
 

TyMiles2012

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2016 seems to be the best release year. ReviewTechUSA made a great point about this recently. We're in the dead middle of the average console life cycle. If it releases in 2016, there will be enough room for Nintendo to catch up with the competition. If it releases in 2017, it'll be too late into the cycle to get everyone's interest. He also pointed out, "Will the console be strong enough to catch up for the 9th generation as well?" I would have to say maybe. It might be "slightly" behind, but maybe Nintendo will release some kind of expansion pak kind of thing to increase it's performance to even stay in touch with the next generation.
 

Damien Lee

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It's looking more likely that Nintendo will launch the NX around the fall of 2016. I believe that this is too soon and I hope to see further support for the Wii U. Considering the system's low sales, Nintendo may have given up on it and is looking for a brand new start. Whether this will be a successful strategy remains to be seen. I hope that everyone responsible for the NX launch will have their thinking caps on.
 

CemeteryGates23

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That's pretty interesting, and feels like it's really soon after the launch of the Wii U, but let's take a look at the timeline of console releases by Nintendo by system (in North America):
  • NES - Released October 18, 1985
  • Super NES - Released August 23, 1991 (~6 years after the NES)
  • Nintendo 64 - Released September 26, 1996 (~5 years after the Super NES)
  • GameCube - Released November 18, 2001 (~5 years after the N64)
  • Wii - Released November 19, 2006 (5 years after the GameCube)
  • Wii U - Released November 18, 2012 (6 years after the Wii)
  • NX - Potentially November 2016 (making it only 4 years after the Wii U)

It will be the shortest amount of time in-between Nintendo consoles, but not by that much. It feels pretty soon though, but historically a console's life is about 5 years, so they're going with a year earlier than "normal", which is no surprise considering the sales of the Wii U. In contrast, we got 6 years of the Wii before the Wii U came out, which speaks to its popularity.
This post is awesome, because while it's noticeably less time than usual, it goes to show the Wii U's lifetime wasn't all that short either as some people are feeling.
I just got mine in May so I definitely relate to the feeling that just as I got it it's being replaced, but the way I see it, it's given me hours upon hours of fun and it'll offer that for at least another good year. There's still time to go, games to play, and hopefully, the NX will have some manner of backwards compatibility, a department that Nintendo has always treated with greater care for customer satisfaction than the competitors.
So, enjoy your Wii Us while they last, I say, 'cause there's still much entertainment to be had.

EDIT: Besides, I don't know how many of you were early adopters, but I think I may have a bit of a point, at least in my own case, when I consider I don't have a PS4 or Xbox One yet, and I did just get the Wii U.
 

Hyrule Chicken

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@CemeteryGates23 excellent point, not everyone (including myself) gets their console on day-1. The other "good" thing is that games do take a while to develop so whatever is in development will still come out for the Wii U even if the NX could be just around the corner. I mean, I still get the frustration for Wii U owners due to the fact that you want your console to last as long as possible.
 

Hyrule Chicken

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@GunGunW it would be nice for Nintendo to hold off a bit and give the owners of the Wii U a bit more time to enjoy their console before jumping to the newest thing, but ultimately it comes down to the big ol' mighty dollar and how much profit the company can make. It'll depend on the details of the new console for sure, because if it's a handheld or something completely unique, it may be able to live side-by-side with the Wii U and not against it.
 

TyMiles2012

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@Hyrule Chicken I think that's what's going to happen. When the new account system was announced, it included the NX, WiiU and the 3DS on that graph. I'm pretty sure the WiiU is still going to get some first party support for a least two years while the NX is active.
 

lear

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I just purchased my wii u December 2015, so I plan on using it until nx comes out, be it 2016 or 2017, though I think I'd prefer 2017 just in case the life line of games gets cut off at the throat for Wii u if the nx releases this year, though, it's confirmed the new legend of Zelda is a go for December of 2016, at worst it will come out for both platforms; and I suppose I am just fine with that. Especially if you can cross platform.
 

Y0shiM0n

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It says December 2016, but that may not be the case, since we do not know when the NX is releasing. It may just be a placeholder for the real date. Just keep that in mind.
 

lear

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Amazon has the pre order for Wii u for the legend of Zelda, it would still be for Wii u at least also right?
 

Y0shiM0n

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I think so, but I am not certain. They may just bring it over to the NX, or maybe on both consoles. I can't say for certain now, though.
 
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